The radar

Where demand is highand supply is low.

Every problem, ranked by opportunity: how badly the world needs a solution, divided by how well-served it already is. The biggest gaps are the best places to start. This is step zero.

live dataWorld Bank · World Development Indicators · updated 2026-04-08

The allocation quadrant

Demand, against the capital actually flowing.

Each problem plotted by how much it matters (demand) against the dollars per year pointed at it (sourced estimates, log scale). The top-left quadrant is the product: high demand, thin capital. That is where the next great company is hiding.

THE GAPS · high demand, thin capitalBACKED PRIORITIESWATCHLISTCONSENSUS-CROWDEDCAPITAL FLOWING AT IT ($/YR, LOG) →DEMAND →$1B$10B$100B$1TExtreme poverty ↘Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness ↘Infectious disease (malaria, TB, HIV) ↘Low-cost housing & construction ↘Loneliness & social isolation →Climate change ↗Longevity & aging →Pedagogy at scale ↘Fertility decline & demographic stagnation →Scientific productivity ↗Energy abundance ↗
hover a problem · arrows show capital momentum (3y)● underallocated● balanced● overallocated
01
Hypertension controlHealth
The largest controllable mortality risk is a primary-care delivery failure, not a missing drug.
0 cos · 0 funds on it
demand 57●●●●●●●
dem
sup
60
02
Neglected tropical diseasesHealth
1.7 billion people need treatment for diseases that get under 2% of pharmaceutical R&D and falling aid.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $20B prize
demand 81●●●●●●●
dem
sup
48
03
Extreme povertyPovertyunderallocated
Lift the ~700 million people living on less than $2.15 a day into stable prosperity.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $212B/yr ↘ · $500B prize
demand 90●●●●●●●
dem
sup
47
04
Biosecurity & pandemic preparednessBiosecurityunderallocated
Prevent engineered and naturally-emerging pandemics from wiping out humanity or crippling civilization.
4 cos · 3 funds on it · $4B/yr ↘ · $200B prize
demand 86●●●●●●●
dem
sup
44
05
AI datacenter powerEnergy
The AI compute buildout is no longer chip-constrained. It is power-constrained, and the gap is $1.3 trillion.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $400B prize
demand 86●●●●●●●
dem
sup
41
06
Newborn survivalHealth
2.3 million babies die in their first month of life every year, mostly from causes medicine already knows how to prevent.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $30B prize
demand 68●●●●●●●
dem
sup
35
07
Infectious disease (malaria, TB, HIV)Healthunderallocated
The Copenhagen Consensus welfare floor, pennies save lives, and we still are not spending them.
5 cos · 3 funds on it · $25B/yr ↘ · $200B prize
demand 86●●●●●●●
dem
sup
22
08
Low-cost housing & constructionPovertyunderallocated
Close the gap between what materials cost and what buildings cost, housing is 5× its bill of materials.
5 cos · 5 funds on it · $10B/yr ↘ · $300B prize
demand 79●●●●●●●
dem
sup
17
09
Loneliness & social isolationSocialunderallocated
The US Surgeon General called it an epidemic. Mortality effect equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
4 cos · 1 funds on it · $300M/yr → · $200B prize
demand 74●●●●●●●
dem
sup
17
10
Climate changeClimateoverallocated
Decarbonize the global economy fast enough to limit warming, while keeping energy cheap and abundant.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $1.5T/yr ↗ · $1T prize
demand 87●●●●●●●
dem
sup
15
11
Financial infrastructureGovernance
Move value for everyone at near-zero cost, on rails not owned by a sixty-year-old duopoly.
0 cos · 0 funds on it · $1T prize
demand 80●●●●●●●
dem
sup
14
12
Longevity & agingLongevityunderallocated
Extend healthspan. Aging is the single largest driver of disease burden, and it is treatable.
8 cos · 5 funds on it · $8B/yr → · $3T prize
demand 82●●●●●●●
dem
sup
11
13
Pedagogy at scaleEducationunderallocated
Close Bloom's 2-sigma gap, every child deserves a personal tutor, and AI may finally make it tractable.
5 cos · 4 funds on it · $3B/yr ↘ · $300B prize
demand 73●●●●●●●
dem
sup
10
14
Fertility decline & demographic stagnationSocialunderallocated
Every developed country is below replacement. Under-counted by EA and e/acc. Civilizationally large.
4 cos · 1 funds on it · $1B/yr → · $200B prize
demand 74●●●●●●●
dem
sup
9
15
Scientific productivityScienceunderallocated
Ideas are getting harder to find. Reverse the decline in research productivity per dollar.
9 cos · 9 funds on it · $400M/yr ↗ · $1T prize
demand 73●●●●●●●
dem
sup
5
16
Energy abundanceEnergyoverallocated
Produce clean, cheap, dispatchable energy at civilizational scale, fusion, advanced fission, geothermal.
34 cos · 13 funds on it · $2.2T/yr ↗ · $2T prize
demand 82●●●●●●●
dem
sup
4

opportunity = demand (humans affected × severity × market) divided by supply (companies, capital, and solution quality already on it), nudged by urgency. Higher = a bigger, more urgent, less-served gap. The ● dots show how many independent demand signals (burden, willingness-to-pay, capital, research, policy, expert priors, queues & shortages) corroborate the number — more dots = more credible. allocation compares each problem’s share of real capital ($/yr, sourced estimates) to its share of demand: under half its fair share = underallocated, over double = overallocated. Arrows = 3-year capital momentum. Full method on the methodology page.

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