Infectious disease (malaria, TB, HIV)
The Copenhagen Consensus welfare floor, pennies save lives, and we still are not spending them.
The scale of it
annual malaria deaths
The capital on it
Development assistance for health aimed at HIV, TB, malaria and immunization (Global Fund, Gavi, PEPFAR, Gates). Excludes domestic health budgets. COVID-era peak has unwound and aid cuts bite.
source: IHME — Financing Global Health (infectious-disease slice of DAH) · confidence med · estimate, improvable by PR
The prize at the limit
A platform that can design, manufacture, and deliver vaccines and therapeutics against malaria, TB, HIV, and the next outbreak at low marginal cost becomes the permanent infrastructure of global health security.
comparable: Moderna at peak (~$180B) · confidence low · a ceiling, not a forecast
The trade: demand is high, only $25B/yr of capital is flowing (0.05× its fair share), and the prize at the limit is $200B. This is a Request for Startups and a Request for Investors at once.
The summary lives here. The full whitepaper walks through the four-axis ranking, existing alternatives, proposed direction, cost & scale, and suggested investors — in the spirit of Hyperloop Alpha.
Severity · WTP / wealth
share of affected person’s wealth they would pay for a solution
Current solutions
quality of existing solutions — low score = high opportunity
Market size · TAM
USD / year the world is already paying
Time · OOM to impact
order-of-magnitude horizon to civilizational-scale impact
Capital · OOM to solve
cumulative R&D + deployment + supply chain across the arc
Priority score
21
importance × urgency, 0–100
Importance
53
humans affected × severity, gated by market
Urgency
39
direction of travel + solution gap
Neglectedness
5/10Among the most cost-effective causes in global health, yet still chronically underfunded relative to the deaths it prevents.
highTractability
8/10Proven interventions exist now: bednets, the RTS,S and R21 vaccines, antiretrovirals, and emerging gene-drive vector control.
highWays to help
Build sub-dollar point-of-care diagnostics or safe gene-drive vector control.
Organizations
- Against Malaria Foundationnonprofit
- Gates Foundationfunder
People to follow
- Caroline Buckeeepidemiology, Harvard
- Rob Matherfounder, Against Malaria Foundation
Three-lens scoring
Malaria killed ~600,000 people in 2023, mostly children under 5. Tuberculosis kills ~1.3M per year. HIV kills ~630,000 per year despite proven suppression protocols. The Copenhagen Consensus ranks these interventions among the highest benefit-cost ratios in global development, $1 of intervention returns $20-$100 in economic and welfare gains. This is the baseline anyone claiming to rank humanity's problems has to include.
The success vision · 15 years horizon
If we solve this, here is the world we get.
Before · today
~1.3M deaths/yr from TB. ~600K from malaria. ~600K from HIV/AIDS. All preventable with known interventions but coverage gaps + drug resistance growing.
After · 15 years
Malaria, TB, HIV mortality reduced 95%+ via single-dose curatives, gene-drive vector control, universal vaccines. Three of humanity’s oldest scourges effectively closed out.
Companies on this quest
5 mappedHIV franchise leader (Biktarvy, Descovy, lenacapavir as twice-yearly PrEP). Also hep B/C, oncology.
Global pharma. Manufacturer of RTS, S and R21 malaria vaccines; major HIV and TB portfolios.
mRNA platform company. Pandemic preparedness via rapid vaccine development, plus pipeline in malaria, HIV, and rare disease.
Vaccine alliance funding immunization in low-income countries. Vaccinated over 1B children since 2000.
Distributes long-lasting insecticidal nets. Consistently top-rated GiveWell charity for cost-effective impact.
Capital funding this quest
3 allocatorsDeep Science Ventures
Venture StudioOutcome-first venture creation. Define the holy-grail outcome, then recruit founders.
best for: Founders who want a co-founder thesis and institutional support from day one.
Fifty Years
Venture CapitalEvery portfolio company must solve a UN SDG. Profit with purpose, no exceptions.
best for: Mission-aligned technical founders who want to marry returns and impact.
Rise Fund (TPG)
Venture CapitalGrowth-stage impact investing with rigorous Impact Multiple of Money scoring.
best for: Growth-stage impact companies with measurable IMM.
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