welfare floorPhysical health & diseasehumans affected:high

Infectious disease (malaria, TB, HIV)

The Copenhagen Consensus welfare floor, pennies save lives, and we still are not spending them.

The summary lives here. The full whitepaper walks through the four-axis ranking, existing alternatives, proposed direction, cost & scale, and suggested investors — in the spirit of Hyperloop Alpha.

Quantity · humans affected

2.5Bhumans at risk of at least one

source: WHO Global Burden of Disease

Severity · WTP / wealth

60%med

share of affected person’s wealth they would pay for a solution

Current solutions

4.0/ 10med

quality of existing solutions — low score = high opportunity

Market size · TAM

$200.0Bmed

USD / year the world is already paying

Time · OOM to impact

10ylow

order-of-magnitude horizon to civilizational-scale impact

Capital · OOM to solve

$150.0Blow

cumulative R&D + deployment + supply chain across the arc

Three-lens scoring

welfare · copenhagen BCR

48.0× per $high

x-risk · 80k hours ITNn/a

utility delta · state-of-art vs physics

50%med

Malaria killed ~600,000 people in 2023, mostly children under 5. Tuberculosis kills ~1.3M per year. HIV kills ~630,000 per year despite proven suppression protocols. The Copenhagen Consensus ranks these interventions among the highest benefit-cost ratios in global development, $1 of intervention returns $20-$100 in economic and welfare gains. This is the baseline anyone claiming to rank humanity's problems has to include.

The success vision · 15 years horizon

If we solve this, here is the world we get.

med

Before · today

~1.3M deaths/yr from TB. ~600K from malaria. ~600K from HIV/AIDS. All preventable with known interventions but coverage gaps + drug resistance growing.

After · 15 years

Malaria, TB, HIV mortality reduced 95%+ via single-dose curatives, gene-drive vector control, universal vaccines. Three of humanity’s oldest scourges effectively closed out.

Companies on this quest

5 mapped

Gilead Sciencespublic

HIV franchise leader (Biktarvy, Descovy, lenacapavir as twice-yearly PrEP). Also hep B/C, oncology.

$95.0Bhigh

GSKpublic

Global pharma. Manufacturer of RTS, S and R21 malaria vaccines; major HIV and TB portfolios.

$72.0Bhigh

Modernapublic

mRNA platform company. Pandemic preparedness via rapid vaccine development, plus pipeline in malaria, HIV, and rare disease.

$10.5Bhigh

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliancenonprofit

Vaccine alliance funding immunization in low-income countries. Vaccinated over 1B children since 2000.

private · no disclosed cap

Against Malaria Foundationnonprofit

Distributes long-lasting insecticidal nets. Consistently top-rated GiveWell charity for cost-effective impact.

private · no disclosed cap

Capital funding this quest

3 allocators

Deep Science Ventures

Venture Studio

Outcome-first venture creation. Define the holy-grail outcome, then recruit founders.

best for: Founders who want a co-founder thesis and institutional support from day one.

Fifty Years

Venture Capital

Every portfolio company must solve a UN SDG. Profit with purpose, no exceptions.

best for: Mission-aligned technical founders who want to marry returns and impact.

Rise Fund (TPG)