all problems
x-risk frontierBio & pandemic riskAI & x-riskhumans affected:high

Biosecurity & pandemic preparedness

Prevent engineered and naturally-emerging pandemics from wiping out humanity or crippling civilization.

Whitepaper · v0.1 · open to refutation

The summary lives here. The full whitepaper walks through the four-axis ranking, existing alternatives, proposed direction, cost & scale, and suggested investors — in the spirit of Hyperloop Alpha.

Quantity · humans affected

8.1Bhumans

source: 80,000 Hours biosecurity profile

Severity · WTP / wealth

85%low

share of affected person’s wealth they would pay for a solution

Current solutions

3.0/ 10med

quality of existing solutions — low score = high opportunity

Market size · TAM

$100.0Blow

USD / year the world is already paying

Time · OOM to impact

12ylow

order-of-magnitude horizon to civilizational-scale impact

Capital · OOM to solve

$500.0Blow

cumulative R&D + deployment + supply chain across the arc

Three-lens scoring

welfare · copenhagen BCRn/a
x-risk · 80k hours ITN
9.0 / 10high
utility delta · state-of-art vs physics
80%low

COVID-19 demonstrated the tail risk from a single pathogen. Dual-use gene synthesis, lab leaks, and deliberate misuse mean that worst-case pandemics could be civilization-ending. Tractable: far-UVC sterilization, early-warning surveillance, broad-spectrum countermeasures, pathogen-agnostic detection.

The success vision · 10 years horizon

If we solve this, here is the world we get.

med

Before · today

World detects novel pathogens months after they spread; vaccines take 12+ months to develop and longer to globally distribute.

After · 10 years

Pathogens detected within days via genomic surveillance; vaccines designed and manufactured in weeks; equitable global distribution. No mass-casualty pandemic events possible.

Voices on this quest

2 thinkers
Patrick CollisonCo-founder & CEO, Stripe · Stripe

Funded Fast Grants during COVID to demonstrate that biomedical research can move at wartime speed when the structure allows it.

Fast Grants and Fast

Trae StephensPartner & Co-founder · Founders Fund, Anduril

Bio-manufacturing and biosecurity are named hard-quest categories in the Founders Fund thesis and deserve high-agency builders.

Choose Good Quests

Companies on this quest

4 mapped
Modernapublic

mRNA platform company. Pandemic preparedness via rapid vaccine development, plus pipeline in malaria, HIV, and rare disease.

$10.5Bhigh

De-extinction and genetic engineering. Biosecurity adjacency via rapid genome editing and cold-chain logistics.

$10.2Bmed

Cell programming platform. Biosecurity Division runs metagenomic surveillance and pathogen detection at scale.

$350Mhigh

Sentinel surveillance using metagenomic sequencing of wastewater to detect novel pathogens before they spread.

private · no disclosed cap

Capital funding this quest

3 allocators

Sources