all problems
hard techEnergy & abundancehumans affected:high

Energy abundance

Produce clean, cheap, dispatchable energy at civilizational scale, fusion, advanced fission, geothermal.

Whitepaper · v0.1 · open to refutation

The summary lives here. The full whitepaper walks through the four-axis ranking, existing alternatives, proposed direction, cost & scale, and suggested investors — in the spirit of Hyperloop Alpha.

Quantity · humans affected

8.1Bhumans

source: IEA World Energy Outlook

Severity · WTP / wealth

15%med

share of affected person’s wealth they would pay for a solution

Current solutions

4.0/ 10med

quality of existing solutions — low score = high opportunity

Market size · TAM

$10.0Thigh

USD / year the world is already paying

Time · OOM to impact

25ylow

order-of-magnitude horizon to civilizational-scale impact

Capital · OOM to solve

$5.0Tlow

cumulative R&D + deployment + supply chain across the arc

Three-lens scoring

welfare · copenhagen BCR
15.0× per $low
x-risk · 80k hours ITN
7.0 / 10med
utility delta · state-of-art vs physics
25%med

Energy underwrites every other quest. Current global primary energy use is ~600 EJ/year at ~$0.10/kWh average. Thermodynamic physics allows orders of magnitude more throughput at far lower cost. Fusion (net energy achieved at NIF 2022), advanced fission (SMRs, Gen IV), and enhanced geothermal are all within the adjacent possible. Energy is the denominator in Musk's utility-delta: cheap energy improves every human life.

The success vision · 20 years horizon

If we solve this, here is the world we get.

med

Before · today

~700M humans lack reliable electricity. Clean firm baseload requires policy heroics. Industrial heat + desalination + direct air capture remain economically marginal at current energy prices.

After · 20 years

Energy approaches "too cheap to meter" ($0.01–0.02/kWh wholesale). Universal access. Industrial heat, mass desalination, and carbon removal become economically trivial.

Voices on this quest

3 thinkers
Elon MuskEngineer & Founder · SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, xAI
Earth will run on sustainable energy, sooner with Tesla, later without.

The entire Tesla Master Plan is a bet that a sustainable-energy economy is both necessary and engineering-tractable. Solar + batteries + electrification is the physics-possible path.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3 (April 2023)

Jason CrawfordFounder · Roots of Progress

Nuclear, fusion, and solar abundance are the central infrastructure quests. Safety is an engineering achievement of progress, not a brake on it.

Roots of Progress essays on nuclear and fusion

Trae StephensPartner & Co-founder · Founders Fund, Anduril
A good quest makes the future better than our world today. A bad quest doesn’t improve the world much at all, or makes it worse.

Energy abundance, specifically fusion, geothermal, and next-gen fission, is a canonical hard/good quest that markets structurally underfund.

Choose Good Quests (Founders Fund / Pirate Wires, 2023)

Companies on this quest

34 mapped

Cadmium-telluride thin-film solar — non-Chinese supply chain, larger US manufacturing capacity than the rest of the industry combined.

$20.0Bmed

High-temperature superconducting tokamak (SPARC, ARC). Aiming for commercial fusion energy by early 2030s.

$9.0Bmed
Oklopublic

Microreactor developer (Aurora). Fast-spectrum fission using recycled nuclear fuel.

$9.0Bhigh

Pulsed, aneutronic fusion with direct electricity conversion. Signed 50MW PPA with Microsoft targeting 2028.

$5.4Bmed

First SMR design certified by the US NRC (VOYGR-77). 77 MWe modules, integral pressurized water reactor. Romania CE Oltenia deployment in development.

$4.5Bmed

Aneutronic fusion via field-reversed configuration (p-B11 fuel). Backed by Google, NEA, Vulcan. Cancer-therapy spinout TAE Life Sciences.

$3.0Bmed
Newcleoprivate

Lead-cooled fast reactor running on reprocessed nuclear waste (MOX fuel). Closes the fuel cycle. HQ London, R&D in Italy and France.

$3.0Blow

Iron-air batteries — 100-hour storage at ~1/10th the cost per kWh of lithium. First commercial deployments with Xcel and Great River Energy underway.

$2.4Bmed

Enhanced geothermal using horizontal drilling from oil & gas. Operating commercial pilot in Nevada.

$1.4Bmed

Microreactor designs ZEUS (solid-core, mobile) and ODIN (low-pressure salt). IPO May 2024. R&D-stage; no operating reactor yet.

$1.0Bmed

100 MW PEM electrolyzer plants for green hydrogen at industrial scale. First gigawatt-class factory in Devens, MA.

$1.0Bhigh

Pulsed magnetic fusion using impedance-matched Marx generators. $900M Series A at launch — one of the largest seed-equivalent rounds in fusion.

$900Mhigh

Gravity-based long-duration storage (composite blocks lifted by automated cranes), plus battery and green hydrogen platforms. Operations in China, Australia, US.

$200Mlow

Advanced fission reactors using molten-salt coolant. Construction permit issued; Google PPA for 500MW.

private · no disclosed cap
X-energyprivate

High-temperature gas-cooled SMR. Amazon deal for 5GW+; TRISO fuel fabrication facility under construction.

private · no disclosed cap

Compact spherical tokamak with high-temperature superconducting magnets. ST40 device hit 100M °C ion temperature in 2022.

private · no disclosed cap

Magnetized target fusion — plasma compressed by mechanically-driven liquid metal liner. LM26 demonstration plant in Richmond, BC.

private · no disclosed cap
Zap Energyprivate

Sheared-flow-stabilized Z-pinch fusion. No magnets or lasers — uses a column of plasma to confine itself. FuZE-Q device achieved fusion plasma in 2023.

private · no disclosed cap

Inertial fusion via projectile-driven target compression. Spun out of Oxford. Demonstrated fusion in 2022.

private · no disclosed cap

Laser-driven inertial fusion using nano-structured targets. Partnered with Colorado State for a $150M test facility.

private · no disclosed cap

Stellarator fusion — uses HTS magnets in twisted geometry to confine plasma without plasma current drive. Infinity One pilot plant planned at TVA Bull Run site.

private · no disclosed cap

Stellarator fusion. Spun out of Max Planck IPP (Wendelstein 7-X). Stellaris reference design targeting 2030s pilot plant.

private · no disclosed cap
TerraPowerprivate

Sodium-cooled fast reactor (Natrium, 345 MWe) with integrated molten salt thermal storage for load-following. First plant under construction in Kemmerer, WY. Founded by Bill Gates.

private · no disclosed cap

Plug-and-play 20 MWe modular pressurized water reactor. Sells power directly to industrial offtakers via PPA. Multiple deployment agreements in Poland, UK, Romania.

private · no disclosed cap

Sodium-cooled microreactor (10 MWe). Pod-based, factory-built, designed for AI data center pairings. Idaho National Lab partnership.

private · no disclosed cap

Portable 1 MWe high-temperature gas-cooled microreactor (Kaleidos) for off-grid, military, and disaster-relief use. NRC operating license in process.

private · no disclosed cap
Eavorprivate

Closed-loop geothermal — drills a heat-collecting radiator underground, no fracking or aquifer dependency. First commercial Eavor-Loop under construction in Geretsried, Germany.

private · no disclosed cap

Millimeter-wave drilling (gyrotron-vaporized rock) to reach 10–20 km depth, where geothermal heat is hot enough to retrofit any coal plant. MIT spinout.

private · no disclosed cap

Pressure-driven enhanced geothermal — uses the earth as a giant battery, pumping water in under pressure and releasing it for both baseload and storage. Meta data-center PPA signed 2024.

private · no disclosed cap
Hydrostorprivate

Advanced compressed-air energy storage (A-CAES) using purpose-built underground caverns. 8+ hour duration. Multi-GWh projects in development in Australia and California.

private · no disclosed cap

Solid-carbon thermal batteries delivering process heat and power for heavy industry. Cheap charge from intermittent renewables, output as 1500 °C heat.

private · no disclosed cap

Heat-storage refractory bricks charged by renewable electricity, deliver continuous high-temperature process heat. Backed by Microsoft, Breakthrough Energy.

private · no disclosed cap
Heliogenpublic

Concentrated solar with computer-vision-aimed heliostats producing 1000+ °C process heat for industry. Backed by Bill Gates; SPAC-listed (NYSE: HLGN).

private · no disclosed cap
Oxford PVprivate

Perovskite-on-silicon tandem solar cells holding the world-record certified efficiency for commercial-size cells (~28%). Brandenburg fab shipping commercial modules.

private · no disclosed cap

Capital funding this quest

12 allocators

Thiel Fellowship

Fellowship

$100k to stop out of school and build something important.

best for: Under-22 builders with spiky talent and a real project.

776 Fellowship

Fellowship

$100k over two years for 18-24 year olds tackling climate change.

best for: Young climate-focused founders bridging activism and company building.

Activate Fellowship

Accelerator

Two-year salary and national-lab access for scientists taking PhD research to market.

best for: Technical founders who need time and lab equipment, not just cash.

Prime Coalition

Catalytic Capital

Catalytic capital for climate tech that would not get conventional VC funding.

best for: Climate-tech teams facing the Valley of Death between science and scale.

Speculative Technologies

Focused Research Org

ARPA-style coordinated research programs for big-if-true platform tech.

best for: Research areas that are not yet startups but could unlock whole fields.

Homeworld Collective

Focused Research Org

Climate biotech is neglected vs pharma. Fund the gap.

best for: Early-stage experiments in greenhouse gas removal and climate biology.

Deep Science Ventures

Venture Studio

Outcome-first venture creation. Define the holy-grail outcome, then recruit founders.

best for: Founders who want a co-founder thesis and institutional support from day one.

Marble

Venture Studio

Hard climate tech studio, pair scientists with operators.

best for: Scientists who want an operator co-founder paired in residence.

Founders Fund

Venture Capital

Contrarian hard tech that rebuilds the industrial base.

best for: Scaling massive hard-tech quests, space, defense, biotech, fusion.

a16z American Dynamism

Venture Capital

National-interest technology, aerospace, defense, manufacturing, public safety.

best for: Founders rebuilding American industrial capacity.

Fifty Years

Venture Capital

Every portfolio company must solve a UN SDG. Profit with purpose, no exceptions.

best for: Mission-aligned technical founders who want to marry returns and impact.

Rise Fund (TPG)

Venture Capital

Growth-stage impact investing with rigorous Impact Multiple of Money scoring.

best for: Growth-stage impact companies with measurable IMM.

Sources